要点摘要

国泰君安 HFT 认为，随着经济转型带动的长期结构性牛市逐步形成，中国股市可能创下新高。报告指出，美国非农就业强于预期，短暂推高了加息预期，但认为美联储内部存在分歧且中国的长期基本面支持风险资产。 新兴科技仍然是主要投资主题，同时领先制造业和有选择性的价值板块在信心与流动性条件改善时亦应受益于估值重估。

情绪分析

• 报告传达出整体偏正面至中性的市场情绪。报告承认短期波动是由于美国就业数据强劲，提升了加息预期并短暂压制了风险资产。然而，长期评估倾向建设性：中国的结构性韧性、政策改革与加速的科技投资支撑了“转型性牛市”情景。语气相对审慎，并指出地缘政治紧张与全球经济放缓风险。建议在夏季采取战术性谨慎，但中期展望支持进一步上涨。
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文章正文

The research note from Guotai HFT presents a comprehensive view of current macro and market dynamics and concludes that China’s stock market is positioned to continue its upward trajectory, potentially reaching new highs. The report opens with macro observations, notably a stronger-than-expected U.S. nonfarm payroll report for May 2026 that reinforced expectations of tighter monetary policy in the near term. That data point — 172,000 new jobs versus a consensus of 88,000 — led to a sharp market reaction: a stronger dollar, rising U.S. yields, and declines in major equity indices. Nonetheless, the authors emphasize that Federal Reserve policy remains internally divided, and they do not expect an imminent rate hike within the year. In the short term, markets may face liquidity-driven volatility, particularly around June.

On the U.S. labor market, the note highlights broad-based strength: leisure and hospitality led private payroll gains, government hiring recovered, and even excluding sectors that routinely add jobs, the three-month moving average across many private industries has been rising since late 2025. Unemployment held near 4.3% with labor force participation stable at 61.8%. These factors together signal a resilient U.S. employment backdrop that momentarily increased rate worries, but the report frames this as a transient shock rather than a durable regime shift.

Turning to China, Guotai HFT argues that the conditions for a prolonged, structural bull market — described as a "long, slow, transformational bull" — are being assembled. The note attributes this to several interacting forces: improved policy credibility and governance, visible industrial competitiveness, and the end of a persistent cycle of asset-price depreciation. These dynamics have lowered risk premia and discount rates for Chinese assets, making equities more attractive for both domestic and international investors. The authors caution that the transformational nature of the rally raises the bar for stock-selection, given K-shaped outcomes across sectors.

Macro and market stability are cited as foundational. The report expects short-lived summer volatility — labeled a "brief rainfall" — but believes that once liquidity conditions and investor confidence normalize, Chinese equities should resume an upward trend into the third quarter and potentially hit new highs before settling into a steadier advance in the fourth quarter. Importantly, the note emphasizes that this outlook relies on the continuation of policy reforms and improvements in market structure designed to increase investability and reduce volatility.

In terms of sector strategy, Guotai HFT favors emerging technology as the primary investment thread. Accelerating AI-related capital expenditure globally, ongoing capacity constraints, and rapid technological iteration support a sustained technology cycle. The report finds that inventory and return-on-invested-capital metrics have yet to signal a peak, suggesting further upside for leading names. Emerging tech, including AI infrastructure and chip-related segments, is therefore singled out as the core theme for portfolio allocation.

Complementing tech, the research highlights advantaged manufacturers that are globalizing rapidly and transitioning from cost-based to value-based competition. These companies benefit from scale, an engineering talent pool, and increased AI-driven demand, which together can lift margins and expand enterprise boundaries. Sectors recommended include power equipment and new energy, construction machinery, autos and components, and innovative pharmaceuticals.

The note also identifies select traditional sectors that could see a revival. Materials, chemicals, nonferrous metals, coal, and travel-related categories such as aviation and hotels may recover as cyclical pressures ease and supply chains normalize. Financials with improved microstructure — notably banks and brokerages with clearer balance-sheet repair and valuation advantages — are also considered attractive. The report suggests increasing allocations to stable, high-dividend names heading into late-year seasons as a defensive complement.

Investment themes receiving emphasis include self-reliance in key technologies, AI infrastructure, robotics, commercial space, regional revitalization projects, and urban renewal. The research flags downside risks that could derail this constructive path: a deeper-than-expected global recession, underperformance in AI rollouts, or an escalation of geopolitical tensions. Overall, while near-term turbulence may arise from external shocks, the medium-term prognosis is favorable for China equities, particularly for technology leaders and globally competitive manufacturers.

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